How This Bizarre Season Broke the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Mould.
Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.
Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.
Yet the latest competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.
Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.
The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.
Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.
During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!
The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.
Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.
The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.
Still
